The Web of Tomorrow: Really That Mobile?
When you work in the online industry, the whole “mobile trend” is certainly no news to you anymore. In fact, for 2-3 years now more and more people have been predicting that Internet usage will shift towards mobile devices significantly in the next few years. A whole hype was built around this recently which certainly saw its pinnacle when an increasing number of people started using smartphones.
But does this hype really deserve that much attention from the press as well as capital from investors when it comes to new ventures? I think that the development as a whole should be seen realistically. While it is true that mobile internet usage increases rapidly since 2008, we are still talking about a small percentage of the overall number of mobile phone users. And a small percentage of the overall online population.
A recent study revealed that 76% of mobile phone users don’t use their mobile to access the Internet. And frankly, I don’t think that this is going to change as quickly and inevitably as some predict. The study already named two major reasons: the price of mobile internet access as well as the use people really see in it.
Now while the prices of mobile Internet access certainly are bound to drop over the next years, smartphones will stay luxury gadgets for a long time to come. And “complicated” ones at that. It’s easy for someone over 40 to understand how a cell phone can be useful. They also get what an internet connection at home can be used for. But try explaining the use behind location based apps and tweeting on the bus to someone who has simply not grown up as closely to technical progress (and the development of the Web) as the younger generation has. They simply don’t feel the need to stay “connected” all the time. Heck, even I could still easily imagine living without mobile Internet access if I had to. It’s nice to have (especially on business trips) but apart from that, it’s accessory.
According to the aforementioned study, 60% of the questioned mobile phone users didn’t think that learning how to use a smartphone would even be worth it. And I don’t think that many of them are going to answer the question differently in let’s say 5 years. Maybe in 10-15 years, but really not that soon. I even wonder how big the potential market for smartphones, mobile apps and mobile Internet access really is. Certainly, at one point or the other the majority will use their cell phone to sometimes access the Internet on the go and use a few location based apps every now and then but apart from that, is there really that much more potential? We’ll have to see.
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Girl Goes Tech (GGT) is about a 26-year-old, female tech-addict exploring her geeky side and writing about social media, mobile trends and applications.